Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is straightforward: on 25 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport will be measured in degrees Celsius, with the market resolving to the specific range containing that peak. Today, Polymarket prices the YES contract for this outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the defined range, a stark contrast to the on-chain mechanics where USDC settles conditional tokens on the Polygon network once the settlement window closes at 2026-06-25T12:00:00Z.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability with clarity, as June in Wellington typically sees average daily highs dropping from 57°F to 54°F (roughly 14°C to 12°C) with overcast skies dominating 42% of the month[4]. While a recent MetService announcement noted Wellington has already beaten its record June maximum with over 19°C recorded earlier in the month, such extreme outliers are rare against the norm of light rain and strong south-south-westerly winds currently battering the airport[2][5]. The current 0% pricing likely reflects the statistical weight of these cooler, wetter conditions rather than the possibility of a record-breaking heatwave.

Traders should monitor the MetService NZ weather bulletins and the National Weather Service data feeds for any sudden shifts in pressure or wind direction that could trigger an unexpected temperature spike[3][5]. The primary catalyst is the daily pressure trend, which is currently rising at 996mb, a factor that often stabilises cooler conditions rather than allowing heat to build[2]. With the settlement date fixed and the resolution source tied strictly to Wunderground’s daily maximum, the dependency remains on whether the forecasted strong winds and light rain persist through the morning of 25 June, as any deviation could invalidate the crowd’s current certainty.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.