Who will enter Iran by June 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is whether a specific listed person will physically enter Iran’s terrestrial territory before the end of June 2026, a scenario currently priced at 0% YES on Polymarket. This contract trades on the Polygon network using USDC, with conditional tokens reflecting the binary outcome of the visit. The market’s zero probability aligns with the intense geopolitical friction still dominating the region, even as a memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed between the US and Iran on 17 June to terminate hostilities [2][3].

Historically, high-level visits to Iran during active conflict or immediate post-conflict phases have been exceptionally rare, often reserved for secret diplomatic channels rather than public arrivals. The recent MoU, brokered by Pakistan and Qatar, focuses on halting fighting in Lebanon and securing the Strait of Hormuz, not on facilitating foreign dignitary travel [2][4]. Comparable cases from the 2026 Iran war timeline show that while ceasefire negotiations advanced, no foreign heads of state or prominent officials entered Iran’s land territory during the peak of the conflict [8].

Traders should monitor official announcements regarding the 60-day roadmap for finalising the peace deal, as any shift in diplomatic tone could alter travel feasibility [4]. Key catalysts include the outcome of technical talks in Switzerland, scheduled to continue this week, and any public statements from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on visa policies for foreign visitors [4]. Recent reports confirm that US forces have lifted the maritime blockade on Iranian ports, but no indication exists yet that Iran will open its terrestrial borders to high-profile foreign entrants [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.