Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Wellington temperature contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively saying there is no bid for the outcome tied to the relevant temperature range at Wellington Intl Airport Station on 21 June. Because settlement depends on the highest observed reading at the airport station, traders are really buying exposure to a specific intraday print on Wunderground, not just the broader Wellington forecast. On Polymarket, that exposure is held through **USDC** on **Polygon**, with the market resolving via **conditional tokens** once the Wunderground history page shows the day’s high in Celsius.

That zero price sits against a climate that is usually cool in Wellington in June. Historical and forecast context both matter here: June highs at Wellington International Airport are typically in the mid-teens Celsius, with WeatherSpark showing average daily highs around 57°F to 54°F, and AccuWeather’s June 2026 outlook centred on roughly 10°C to 15°C highs. Yet the key comparator for this market is not the average but the tail event, because MetService has already flagged a June maximum above 19°C in Wellington in recent data, showing that warm spikes can still occur in winter conditions. That kind of outlier is what can make a currently unpriced contract re-rate quickly if the synoptic setup turns unusually mild.

A trader should watch the live airport observations and any short-range MetService guidance, because the market settles on the *highest* temperature recorded at Wellington Intl Airport before the cutoff, not the forecast maximum. The practical catalyst is any late-morning or early-afternoon warm surge, usually driven by northerly flow, clear skies, or föhn-like downslope effects that can push the airport reading above seasonal norms. The Wunderground daily history page is the decisive source for settlement, so the relevant dependency is simply whether the airport’s top reading lands inside the contract’s band before the market closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.