Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade, making transit disruptions a material macroeconomic event. The market prices at 18% YES on Polygon, implying traders assign an 82% probability that the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls stays below 60 through June 2026. That threshold represents a return to pre-disruption baseline; historical data shows the strait typically processes 60–80 transits daily under normal conditions. The USDC settlement mechanism on Polymarket means resolution hinges entirely on IMF Portwatch's published figures, creating a narrow, auditable outcome that eliminates interpretation risk.

Regional tensions have compressed traffic significantly since late 2023, when Houthi attacks on commercial shipping began in earnest. The 7-day average fell to the 40s during peak disruption phases, and whilst some recovery occurred through 2024–2025, sustained normalisation remains elusive. Comparable geopolitical chokepoint disruptions—the 1973 Suez Canal closure, the 1990–1991 Gulf War embargo period—took months to six quarters to fully resolve, though modern shipping has more routing flexibility than in previous eras.

Traders monitoring this contract should track three variables: announcements regarding Houthi operational capacity (particularly US or regional military strikes), Iranian regional posturing around the Strait itself, and insurance premium movements that signal merchant confidence. Recent reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg indicates insurance costs remain elevated relative to pre-2023 levels, suggesting market participants do not yet price in sustained normalcy. Any major escalation involving direct Iranian involvement would likely push resolution further into 2026 or beyond.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.