Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Toronto Pearson International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current Polymarket pricing shows the "YES" outcome for any temperature above the market’s implied threshold sits at 0%, yet the frontrunner for the specific 19°C range commands 36% probability, with 20°C holding 28% [1]. This divergence reflects the market’s conditional token mechanics on the Polygon network, where USDC liquidity flows into shares based on collective trader sentiment rather than abstract weather models.

Historical data frames how to interpret today’s low probability for extreme heat. On 25 June 2026, current conditions show a high of 25°C with thunderstorm risk, while recent records indicate 25 June 2024 saw a historic low of 22.9°C, the highest low recorded on that date since 1938 [2][9]. Conversely, extreme heat warnings have previously pushed Pearson to 35.8°C, nearly a decade ago in July 2016, demonstrating that while mid-June heat spikes are possible, the current 0% "YES" probability likely assumes temperatures will stay within the 19–20°C band [4][10].

Traders must monitor Environment Canada’s hourly heat advisories and the 80% probability of precipitation forecast for today, as rain could suppress peak temperatures [2][3]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 June 2026, with Wunderground serving as the official resolution source for the daily high [1]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in wind speed from the west-north-west at 24 km/h and humidity levels currently at 47%, which directly influence the final temperature reading [3]. No moralising is needed; the on-chain data simply reflects the collective view that 19°C is the most probable outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Toronto on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.