Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 26 June 2026, which will determine the settlement of this prediction market. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as a rational assessment of Seoul’s early summer climate. Long-term averages show daytime highs in Seoul during June typically reach 26°C, with a range of 19°C to 28°C, and humidity remains manageable compared to the intense heat of July and August [1][2]. Recent records confirm this pattern, with the highest maximum temperature in June 2026 reaching 34.0°C on 19 June, while the average warmest day sits near 28°C [9][8]. These figures suggest that extreme heat spikes are uncommon in early June, making a high-temperature outcome unlikely under current conditions.

Traders should monitor the onset of Korea’s monsoon season, which usually begins in late June and could suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and rainfall [2]. The Korea Meteorological Administration has issued short-range forecasts indicating clear skies and temperatures around 28°C for the immediate period, but shifts in precipitation probability could alter the thermal trajectory [4]. Additionally, watch for any official announcements regarding heatwave advisories or unusual weather patterns from the national weather service, as these often precede temperature anomalies. While no specific heatwave has been declared yet, the increasing humidity toward the end of the month remains a key dependency that could either amplify or dampen the day’s peak temperature [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.