Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, measured in whole degrees Fahrenheit by Weather Underground. Today, Polymarket prices the "YES" outcome for this contract at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not fall within the specific range being traded, while the frontrunner outcome sits at 100% for a higher bracket, mirroring the resolved June 23 market where 93–94°F was the definitive peak[2].

Historical patterns frame this near-zero probability, as June in New York typically sees average highs of 83°F, with the month’s highest daily temperature occurring on 26 June at 83.6°F, suggesting that a 24 June spike into the traded range is statistically anomalous[5]. Recent data from 21 June recorded a high of 68°F at LaGuardia, well below the 84–85°F threshold seen in the resolved June 10 market, reinforcing that early June 2026 has been cooler than the seasonal norm[1][4].

Traders should monitor the daily Weather Underground release schedule, which halts at 3:00–3:15 AM ET on Wednesdays, potentially delaying data confirmation for the 24 June settlement[3]. No specific weather announcements are pending, but the dependency on the final daily value in the Summary table means any revision before the first datapoint for 25 June could alter the resolution, a mechanic identical to the June 19 and June 23 contracts[1][8]. The market’s USDC settlement on Polygon relies strictly on this conditional token logic, where the 0% price reflects the on-chain consensus that the temperature range is unlikely to be hit.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.