Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25?

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Market context

On 25 June 2026, Hong Kong will experience its peak daytime heat, with the Hong Kong Observatory recording the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. The current Polymarket contract prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, despite June typically being one of the hottest months in the region. This pricing reflects a mismatch between the abstract event and the on-chain conditional token mechanics, where USDC liquidity on Polygon is being deployed against a resolution that hinges on finalized data in the Daily Extract.

Historically, June highs in Hong Kong range from 87° to 93°F (approximately 30.5° to 34°C), with the average high sitting near 90°F (32.2°C)[2]. Recent records show the Observatory hitting 34.6°C (94.3°F) during extreme heat warnings, while the seasonal forecast for June–August 2026 predicts above-normal temperatures[4][6]. The 0% probability suggests traders are betting the temperature will not land in the narrow band defined by the market, even though comparable cases from the last decade confirm that 33–34°C is a standard upper limit for late June, as seen on 24 June 2026[5].

Traders must monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s scheduled release of the Daily Extract, which finalizes the Absolute Daily Max data after the settlement window ends on 25 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC[7]. The catalyst is the official confirmation of the temperature, which depends on the multi-model consensus forecast system used for the Pearl River Delta region[9]. Any deviation from the above-normal temperature trend forecasted by the Observatory could shift the resolution, making the timing of the data publication critical for conditional token holders[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.