Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup clash between Türkiye and the United States, set for 25 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, is the real-world event driving this market. On Polymarket, the contract for an exact score of Türkiye 1–2 USA currently trades at a 5% implied probability, reflecting the on-chain USDC liquidity and Polygon-based conditional tokens that price this outcome against the broader field. This low figure aligns with historical correct-score volatility in World Cup group stages, where even strong projections like Türkiye 1–2 USA (favoured by SportsGambler and YouTube preview analysts) rarely materialise as the sole result, often overshadowed by draws or one-goal margins [1][2].

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and tactical shifts, particularly Christian Pulisic’s fitness, as his goal-scoring potential heavily influences the 1–2 narrative [1]. The match’s dependency on regulation time only (excluding extra time and penalties) means any late injury or VAR decision could alter the scoreline instantly. Recent analysis from Yahoo Sports suggests the USA’s disciplined defence and ball control may lead to a comfortable win, yet the 76% probability of over 1.5 goals indicates a high-scoring affair is likely, making exact-score bets inherently risky [3][7]. With the settlement window closing 26 June 2026 at 02:00 UTC, on-chain mechanics will resolve the market based solely on the 90-minute result, regardless of postponements.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.