Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Tunisia and the Netherlands will face off in their final Group F match of the FIFA World Cup 2026, with the market currently pricing an exact score outcome at 9% probability. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens, reflects the tight odds Polymarket assigns to a specific scoreline in a high-stakes knockout-qualifier game where both teams are fighting for top-of-group positioning.

Historically, exact score markets in World Cup group stages rarely exceed 10–12% unless one side is a dominant favourite; the Netherlands’ 2–2 friendly draw with Tunisia in 1990 and their two prior draws (with zero Tunisia wins) suggest a competitive but not mismatched contest [1][6]. Given the Netherlands’ recent 4–0 loss to Japan and 5–1 defeat to Sweden in the tournament [2], their defensive fragility may open the door for varied scorelines, making any single exact score inherently low-probability.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and Hervé Renard’s tactical approach for Tunisia, as his ability to spark a revival could shift the score distribution [3][4]. The Dutch team’s reliance on Undav and Gakpo, who have already impressed, will be critical, and any late injury news or formation changes could materially alter the implied probability [4]. With the settlement window closing at 23:00 UTC on 25 June, real-time updates from official FIFA sources and ESPN match coverage will be the primary catalysts for price movement [2][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Scam? — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.