Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket Scam? Pick polygram.ink |
65% | 35% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
65% | 35% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Polymarket Scam? → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Polymarket Scam?.
Active sub-markets
| Map 1 Winner | 65% Paper Rex | 35% Leviatán Esports |
| Map 2 Winner | 59% Paper Rex | 42% Leviatán Esports |
| Map 3 Winner | 61% Paper Rex | 39% Leviatán Esports |
| Map 4 Winner | 65% Paper Rex | 36% Leviatán Esports |
| Map Handicap: PR (-2.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+2.5) | 22% Paper Rex | 78% Leviatán Esports |
| Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) | 47% Paper Rex | 53% Leviatán Esports |
Market context
Polymarket is pricing Paper Rex at **65%** to win this Grand Final contract, with settlement in **USDC on Polygon** through conditional tokens tied to the official result. The event itself is a best-of-five between Paper Rex and Leviatán Esports at VCT Masters London, and the market resolves to Paper Rex only if they win the match; if the series is not played, ends tied, or drifts beyond the seven-day delay rule, it falls back to a 50-50 outcome.
That price sits in the range traders usually assign to a team with clear form and a plausible path to victory, but not a lock. Paper Rex already beat Leviatán earlier in the event, and reporting on the final has them framed as the favourite, with one preview projecting a 3-1 Paper Rex win and citing their map veto edge and greater experience in this setting.[2] That is consistent with a market in the mid-60s rather than a heavily one-sided number; in prediction markets, the current price mainly reflects the chance of a clean series win, not just who has looked stronger in highlights or previous rounds.[2][4][7]
The main catalysts are simple and mechanical: confirmation that the final starts on schedule, any official change to the broadcast or arena timetable, and line-up or veto information close to series time. Because the contract is tied to the match outcome rather than subjective performance, traders will be watching for formal tournament updates more than commentary or social-media sentiment, especially if there is any delay or rescheduling risk before the 7-day settlement cutoff. A recent preview placed the broadcast for June 21 and identified this as the Grand Final, which matters because any disruption to that staging affects the resolution path directly.[2]
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??
- Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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