Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 6 July 2026 will be the deciding factor for this prediction market, with the resolution sourced from Wunderground’s daily history. Polymarket prices this contract today with the leading outcome at 26°C holding a 59% probability, while 25°C sits at 20%, reflecting real-time crowd-sourced USDC bets on the Polygon network. The conditional tokens in play mean traders are effectively wagering on whether the day’s peak heat will breach the 26-degree threshold, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on the event date.

Historical data frames this current probability as unusually cautious; July in Tokyo typically sees highs in the low 30s Celsius, with rain or clouds appearing daily and humidity remaining very high, as noted by recent travel advice on Reddit. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for Haneda indicates daily highs ranging from 76°F to 91°F (24°C to 33°C), suggesting that a 26°C peak is well within the norm rather than an outlier. The fact that the market assigns such a high chance to 26°C implies traders expect the day to be moderately hot but not record-breaking, despite Denver7 reporting that over 120 heatstroke deaths occurred in Tokyo last July when average temperatures hit record highs.

Traders should monitor the hourly weather updates from the National Weather Service for RJTT, specifically watching for any sudden shifts in wind speed or precipitation that could suppress the peak temperature. The Met Office forecast for Haneda currently lists a maximum feels-like temperature of 25°C with gusts up to 15mph, which could be a key dependency if cloud cover increases. Any official announcements regarding heatwave warnings from Japanese meteorological authorities would be a critical catalyst, as these often correlate with the days reaching the highest temperatures. The on-chain mechanics mean that as new data points are published, the conditional token prices will adjust instantly, offering a live read on whether the 26°C threshold will be breached.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.