Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 98% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 95% |
| Game 1 Winner | 92% |
| Game 2 Winner | 92% |
| Game 3 Winner | 92% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 78% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 72% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 65% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 62% |
| Game 4 Winner | 59% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 55% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 47% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 47% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 46% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 46% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 45% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 38% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 32% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 21% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 5% |
Market context
LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 98%. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between T1 and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 6 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
We track LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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