Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which means the market is effectively assigning no value to a Tokyo Haneda Airport Station daily high landing in the specified resolution band on 1 August 2026. The payout will be determined by the recorded **highest temperature** on Wunderground for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, settled through Polymarket’s on-chain **conditional tokens** on **Polygon** and denominated in **USDC**.

For context, Tokyo’s August heat is usually firm rather than extreme: typical August afternoons are around **31°C**, while historical records for Tokyo in August reach about **39°C**[1]. Broader climate histories for Tokyo show August as the hottest month, with average highs around **34.6°C** and a recorded monthly extreme of **37.3°C** in the long-running series cited there[2]. That makes this a summer-heat market, but not one that needs a national record to print; a routine warm spell is often enough to move the relevant range, especially if the airport station’s local microclimate runs hotter than the city average.

A trader should watch the live Tokyo forecast and any shift in the regional heat pattern rather than the abstract seasonal average. AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook shows daily highs of roughly **82°F to 90°F** for Tokyo, which is consistent with a market that can still resolve higher if humidity and a strong afternoon heating cycle combine[6]. Recent reporting also shows Japan has been logging unusually intense summer heat, including record-breaking runs of **35°C-plus** days and national temperature extremes in 2025[3][18]. That matters because the market settles on the airport station reading by noon UTC, so the key catalyst is whether early-morning local conditions in Tokyo support a sharp midday climb before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.