Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Shanghai airport heat contract at **0% YES** in USDC on Polygon, so the market is effectively saying there is no visible chance of a day-high that lands in the YES range unless the order book reprices sharply. The real-world event is the maximum temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on 22 June, and settlement depends on the Wunderground daily history page for ZSPD, not on a citywide reading or a generic Shanghai forecast.

For context, late June in Pudong is already within the local warm season: WeatherSpark says the hot season starts around 17 June, with typical daily highs in June climbing from about 77°F to 83°F and rarely exceeding 92°F.[1][4] That makes extreme heat possible, but not routine. The crowd’s zero pricing is most consistent with a belief that the exact settlement band is unlikely to be hit, rather than a view that Shanghai will be cool; on prediction markets, these contracts often hinge on the precise temperature interval, not the broader headline weather.

A trader watching this should focus on the near-term forecast path, especially any afternoon thunderstorm risk, because cloud cover and convection can cap the day’s maximum even when morning temperatures are already warm. AccuWeather’s 22 June forecast for Pudong points to an afternoon t-storm or two and a high near 79°F, while NOAA’s ZSPD time-series page shows highs moving through the 70s into the 80s across the day.[2][6] For Polymarket users, the relevant mechanics are straightforward: positions are bought and sold in USDC, represented by conditional tokens on Polygon, and the final payout depends entirely on the airport station’s published high before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.