Starmer out by...?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Keir Starmer has served as Prime Minister since Labour's election victory in July 2024. This market prices the probability that he ceases to hold that office at any point between 2 February and 31 December 2025, whether through resignation, removal, or any other mechanism. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket reflects traders' assessment that such an exit remains extraordinarily unlikely within this timeframe, with conditional tokens on Polygon currently pricing near-zero YES positions in USDC terms.

UK Prime Ministers typically serve multi-year terms absent major political crises. Margaret Thatcher lasted eleven years before backbench pressure forced her out in 1990; Tony Blair served ten years before planned departure; Boris Johnson faced sustained backbench rebellion over partygate before resigning in September 2022 after forty-nine days. Liz Truss holds the record for shortest tenure at forty-nine days, driven by economic turmoil and rapid loss of parliamentary confidence. Starmer commands a substantial 412-seat majority in the Commons, materially different from Johnson's precarious position, suggesting the historical baseline for involuntary removal remains low absent extraordinary circumstances.

Traders should monitor Labour backbench sentiment, particularly around cost-of-living measures and public sector strikes scheduled through 2025. The fiscal landscape following the autumn 2024 Budget will shape parliamentary dynamics; any major policy reversal or sustained polling collapse below 20% would signal shifting removal risk. Announcements regarding his health or family circumstances could trigger sudden reassessment. The next general election is scheduled for 2029, making mid-term departure structurally unlikely unless internal party dynamics shift dramatically from current conditions.

Methodology

This page reviews Starmer out by...? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.