Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the **highest temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 21 June** at **0% YES**, so the contract is effectively saying the market sees no chance of a top-end reading within the referenced Celsius range. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through **USDC** on **Polygon**, with outcome exposure embedded in **conditional tokens** rather than a direct bet on the weather itself.

For context, June at Shanghai Pudong is already in the warm season: average daily highs rise from about **77°F to 83°F** across the month, and readings above **30°C / 86°F** are normal in hot spells.[1][2] That means the question is not whether it gets warm, but whether the airport station prints a sufficiently high *daily maximum* on the day. As a comparison, recent forecast pages for the airport show humid conditions and showers around **77°F** on 21 June, which would only support a lower settlement if that pattern holds through the day.[4]

A trader should watch the same inputs the resolver will effectively care about: the airport station’s observed temperature path, any morning showers or cloud cover, and whether the heating window opens after sunrise rather than early-day rain suppression. Shanghai’s June weather is typically humid and rain-prone, so the highest reading can depend on brief clearing, wind shifts, and the timing of convection rather than the headline daily forecast.[7] The contract settles from **Wunderground** history for **Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station**, so intraday updates to that station’s observed maximum are the key mechanic, not city-wide averages or alternate airport reports.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.