Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its highest daily temperature in degrees Celsius, which determines the resolution of this prediction market. Polymarket prices the YES contract for a specific temperature range at 0% today, reflecting the crowd’s belief that the threshold is virtually unattainable given current conditions. The on-chain mechanics involve USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens settle automatically once Wunderground publishes the verified daily high.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability as rational: July highs at Pudong typically climb from 84°F to 88°F (29°C to 31°C), rarely exceeding 95°F (35°C) [1][5]. Even in June 2026, daily highs hovered around 91°F (33°C), while recent extreme heatwaves in Shanghai peaked at 40.1°C (104°F) but were isolated events tied to specific atmospheric anomalies [4][8]. The average daily solar energy is gradually increasing in July, yet it seldom drives temperatures beyond the 35°C ceiling that would trigger a YES outcome [1].

Traders should monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Center’s hourly forecasts and any sudden shifts in the East South Easterly wind pattern, which currently maintains humidity at 84% and pressure at 1011mb [2]. A catalyst worth watching is the National Weather Service’s 72-hour time series for ZSPD, which recorded 79°F (26°C) at 5:30 am on 6 July, suggesting a cool start that may limit daytime peaks [3]. No official announcements are expected, but any deviation from the typical 30–35°C daytime range would be the sole dependency for a market reversal.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.