Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 25 June 2026 at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. On Polymarket today, this contract trades with a 0% probability for the YES outcome, implying the market believes the temperature will not fall within the specified range. This pricing reflects a deep scepticism that the heat will reach the threshold, despite Seoul’s June climate typically warming toward 25–30°C with humidity often exceeding 80%[2][5].

Historically, late June in South Korea sees rising temperatures and increasing humidity as the monsoon season approaches, with daily highs in Seoul averaging 87°F (30.5°C) and occasionally reaching 91°F (32.8°C)[1][3]. Early June is more comfortable, but by late June, heat intensifies, making extreme readings plausible yet not guaranteed[1]. The current 0% probability suggests traders view the threshold as unattainable, perhaps due to expectations of heavy afternoon showers or cloud cover that could suppress peak temperatures, as seen in recent midday reports of 27°C with heavy rain on 25 June 2026[7].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for 25 June, particularly announcements on monsoon intensity and precipitation probability, which directly influence peak temperatures[4][9]. A sudden shift toward clearer skies or reduced rainfall could act as a catalyst for higher readings, while persistent cloud cover or heavy rain would reinforce the current pricing. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 June 2026, meaning on-chain conditional tokens on Polygon (settled in USDC) will resolve based solely on the Wunderground data for that day[2]. Any delay in data publication or discrepancy between stations could introduce resolution risk, so verifying the exact Incheon station record is essential before finalising positions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.