Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul on 6 July 2026 will see its peak temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of the “YES” outcome. This reflects the crowd’s view that the day’s high will fall outside the specified range, likely due to the monsoon’s cooling influence. Historical data shows July in Seoul averages 24–27°C, with highs rarely exceeding 30°C unless late summer heatwaves arrive [2][3]. The 2025 July was South Korea’s second-hottest since 1973, yet even then, sustained peaks above 35°C were uncommon until August [6].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts for cloud cover and precipitation probability, as rain bursts can suppress daytime highs significantly [5]. The Sinchon Water Gun Festival in late July may indicate rising humidity trends, but early July remains within the Jangma monsoon window, where short, heavy rains are concentrated [1]. A recent Al Jazeera report noted South Korea’s record 22 tropical nights in July 2025, with temperatures hitting 41.2°C, but such extremes typically occur later in the month [8]. On-chain, the contract settles via USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, with resolution sourced from Wunderground’s daily max temperature for Incheon [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.