Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing the *highest temperature at Incheon International Airport on 1 August* at **0% YES**, so the market is currently implying no chance that the winning temperature band lands on the YES side of the contract. The position is funded in USDC on Polygon and settles through conditional tokens, so what matters is the final Wunderground daily high for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, not the broader Seoul metro temperature story.

That 0% reads as an extreme sceptical price, but it sits against a Korean summer climate where August highs are normally in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, and hot spells can still push local records well above average. Seoul has seen extreme early-August heat before, including 39.6°C on 1 August 2018, while national records in South Korea have also been set or approached in early August during severe heatwaves. Incheon itself is usually cooler than inland Seoul because of its coastal setting, which makes very high daily maxima less common than in interior cities.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s short-range forecast, any heatwave alerts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, and whether winds, cloud cover, or rain arrive over the airport corridor before the daily maximum is logged. With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC, the key watch period is the local afternoon in Korea, when the day’s peak temperature is most likely to occur; if forecasts keep Incheon near the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than the upper 30s, the market’s current pricing will be easier to understand than to challenge.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.