Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, which the market currently prices as almost certainly falling between 72–73°F. Polymarket prices this contract today with the 72–73°F outcome at 97% probability, while the 74–75°F range sits at just 2%, leaving the "YES" side for higher ranges effectively at 0%. This pricing reflects the on-chain mechanics where USDC settles conditional tokens on Polygon, and the market cannot resolve until Wunderground publishes the first data point for that date.

Historical June patterns in New York typically see average highs around 82°F, yet early June 2026 has shown volatile swings, including a record-breaking heatwave on 4–5 June where temperatures soared to 96–97°F before cooling. The current 72–73°F consensus suggests traders expect a significant cooldown from that early-June peak, aligning with the typical mid-70s baseline rather than the warmer 80s. Comparable markets for 21 June 2026 show a 100% probability for 84–85°F, indicating the 22 June forecast may be an outlier if the heatwave persists, but the market is betting on a sharp dip.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecasts for the Northeast and Wunderground’s hourly updates for KLGA, as any sudden shift in humidity or cloud cover could alter the high. Recent forecasts from 4–5 June highlighted extreme heat with heat indices reaching 105°F, but the current pricing implies a return to normalcy. Watch for official announcements on weather models and any scheduled maintenance at LaGuardia that might delay data publication, as these dependencies directly impact the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 22 June 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.