Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract priced at **1% YES**, so the market is effectively saying a very hot reading at Munich Airport on 1 August is still a long shot, not the base case. Because settlement is tied to the *highest* temperature logged at Munich Airport Station on Wunderground, the relevant number is the day’s peak, not the average or the morning start, and the contract resolves through USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon.

That low price sits against a fairly warm August backdrop rather than an extreme one. Climate normals for Munich in August cluster around the mid-20s Celsius for daytime highs, with typical highs around 24–25°C and monthly averages near 22–24°C, while historical records show the city can occasionally spike far higher, up to 37–38°C in past August heat events.[4][5][8][10] WeatherSpark and climate averages also point to a gradual cooling trend through August, with the first days of the month usually a little warmer than the end, which matters because this market is locked to a single date rather than the whole month.[2][15]

For traders, the immediate catalyst is the actual Munich Airport forecast and any late-day convective change, since thunderstorms and warm afternoon surges can push the daily maximum higher than the morning outlook suggests.[13] AccuWeather’s August outlook for Munich shows highs mostly between 69°F and 81°F, implying a modest ceiling rather than an obvious heat spike.[1] On a Polymarket-style book, the practical watchlist is the live temperature path into the afternoon local time and any forecast revisions that change whether the day can reach an unusually hot threshold before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.