Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 30 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today at 0% for the YES outcome, implying the crowd believes the temperature will not exceed the specified threshold. This pricing reflects on-chain mechanics where USDC settles conditional tokens on the Polygon network, and traders are betting against an extreme heat spike in the wet season.

Historically, June in Manila is characterised by hot, humid conditions with daily highs typically ranging from 28°C to 33°C, often capped by afternoon thunderstorms that prevent record-breaking heat[1][2]. While Metro Manila logged an all-time record of 38.8°C in April 2024, the wet season from June to October usually sees lower averages of 26°C to 31°C due to frequent rainfall[2][5]. The current 0% probability aligns with this pattern, as June rarely produces temperatures exceeding the dry season peaks seen in March and April[2].

Traders should monitor PAGASA weather announcements and the timing of tropical cyclone activity, as these can drastically alter temperature outcomes through cloud cover or rain[5]. A recent report from ABS-CBN highlighted the 38.8°C record, underscoring the potential for extreme spikes if dry conditions persist unexpectedly[5]. However, the wet season dependency on afternoon downpours remains the primary catalyst limiting high temperatures, making an extreme breach unlikely without a significant shift in seasonal patterns[1][2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Manila on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.