Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| Norway O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score | 57% |
| Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Norway O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Team to Advance | 35% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 31% |
| O/U 3.5 | 30% |
| Norway (-1.5) | 25% |
| Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Norway O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 22% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) | 10% |
| Norway (-2.5) | 10% |
| Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) | 3% |
| Norway (-3.5) | 3% |
| O/U 6.5 | 3% |
| Norway (-4.5) | 2% |
| Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) | 1% |
| Norway (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) | 0% |
| Côte d'Ivoire (-5.5) | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 94% chance of côte d'ivoire vs. norway - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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