Highest temperature in London on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 26 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Today, Polymarket prices this contract with a 0% chance for the "YES" outcome, implying traders believe the temperature will not exceed the specific threshold tied to that binary result. Instead, the market heavily favours higher ranges, with 35°C at 37% and 34°C at 31%, suggesting the crowd expects a significant heat spike rather than a mild day.

Historical context frames this current probability by showing how London temperatures have behaved in recent June heatwaves. Just last week, the UK recorded its hottest May day at 35.1°C, and a heatwave is now sweeping northward, with forecasts predicting temperatures could soar to 39°C midweek before moderating to around 32°C by Friday[3]. This pattern mirrors the 1976 and 1957 records, where June saw extreme highs, making the current 0% probability for the lower threshold appear counter-intuitive given the active heatwave conditions and the 37% implied chance for 35°C[1].

Traders should watch the Met Office’s extreme heat alerts and the progression of the four-day heatwave moving across western Europe, as these are the primary catalysts for temperature spikes[3]. The settlement depends on the first data point published on Wunderground for 26 June, so any delay in reporting or sudden moderation in the heatwave could shift the conditional tokens on the Polygon network. With USDC liquidity already flowing into the 35°C and 36°C ranges, the market is betting on the heatwave persisting through the settlement window rather than breaking early[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.