Highest temperature in London on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 25 June 2026 is currently priced at a 1% YES probability on Polymarket, reflecting the market’s tight USDC liquidity and conditional token mechanics on the Polygon network. This low probability suggests traders view an extreme heat spike as highly unlikely, given that today’s observed high is 25°C with moderate humidity and falling pressure[1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 June 2026, with Wunderground serving as the official resolution source for the day’s peak temperature[5].

Historically, London City Airport’s warm season begins mid-June, with average daily highs above 67°F (19.4°C), but extreme outliers above 35°C are rare[3]. Recent data from Hampstead shows a maximum of 33.9°C on 23 June 2026, indicating that while heat is building, it remains within typical summer bounds rather than approaching record-breaking levels[6]. This frames the 1% probability as consistent with climatic norms rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s hourly forecasts, which currently predict a Thursday high of 31°C, and watch for any sudden shifts in wind patterns or pressure systems that could trigger unexpected heat spikes[4]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but dependencies include real-time Wunderground updates and potential model recalibrations from the National Weather Service[2]. The on-chain price will adjust dynamically as new data flows in, with USDC settlements executed automatically upon resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.