Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the absolute daily maximum temperature in degrees Celsius for 26 June 2026, with the market resolving to the specific range containing that figure. Today, Polymarket prices the YES outcome at 0%, implying the crowd believes the temperature will fall outside the targeted range, likely due to expectations of a heatwave pushing readings higher. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, reflects a stark divergence between current odds and historical June patterns where highs frequently exceed 30°C.

Historical data and seasonal forecasts frame this 0% probability as potentially mispriced. The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June to August 2026 predicts above-normal temperatures, while long-term averages show daily highs ranging from 30°C to 33°C, with recent forecasts indicating a heatwave hitting 33°C this week [2][7]. A comparable market for 22 June 2026 resolved at 33°C with significant volume, suggesting that June temperatures in Hong Kong routinely breach the thresholds that might invalidate the current YES range [1].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalised "Daily Extract" for the specified date, as the market cannot resolve until this data is published [2]. Key catalysts include official announcements regarding heatwave warnings and the scheduled release of the absolute daily max, which typically occurs after the 24-hour period concludes. Recent reports confirm temperatures are expected to hit 33°C from Tuesday to Friday, reinforcing the likelihood that the actual reading will align with the heatwave trend rather than the crowd’s current dismissal [7]. The dependency on the Observatory’s finalized extract remains the critical timeline for settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

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FAQ

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On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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