Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Hong Kong heat contract at **0% YES** today, even though the market settles on the Hong Kong Observatory’s recorded *Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)* for 22 June and pays out through conditional tokens in USDC on Polygon. For a trader, that means the current price is effectively saying the relevant temperature band will not be the winning range once the Observatory publishes the final daily extract.

The historical frame is straightforward: Hong Kong’s June climate is already warm, with AccuWeather’s June 2026 outlook showing daily highs around **88°F to 92°F** and the Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal forecast calling for **above-normal temperature** from June to August 2026.[1][2] That sits against recent local heat episodes, including a reported **34.6°C** hottest day of the year so far in May, which shows how quickly Hong Kong can move into the mid-30s on a clear, humid day.[6] The market’s 0% reading therefore implies participants think today’s official maximum will land outside the listed resolution band, rather than simply being “cool” by local standards.

What matters now is the sequence of official updates rather than broad climate averages. The Hong Kong Observatory has already issued a **maximum UV index of about 12** for 22 June, a sign of intense solar conditions, but the market resolves only when the Daily Extract is finalised and the “Absolute Daily Max” is published.[7][5] In practice, traders watching the on-chain book need to track the Observatory’s midday and afternoon bulletins, because the settlement source is the official record, not private forecasts or model output.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.