Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 21?

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Market context

Polymarket is pricing the Hong Kong Observatory’s highest temperature reading for 21 June through USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens settling to whichever Celsius band contains the HKO’s final **Absolute Daily Max** once the Daily Extract is published. The book is currently concentrated in the low-30s, with the market leaning to **32°C** at 51% and **33°C** at 31%, which suggests traders are discounting an outcome above the long-run June norm but not yet pricing a clear break into the mid-30s.[1]

That pricing sits against a June climate backdrop where Hong Kong’s typical highs are around the high 20s to low 30s, while HKO’s own June statistics show the month can produce materially hotter days in sustained heat spells.[1][4] Comparable hot-day reports from the Observatory have included readings in the mid-30s, so a 0% Yes price for any single strike would be unusual only if the contract were still misaligned with live weather data rather than with the seasonal range itself.[3][6] For a trader, the key historical lesson is that small shifts of 1°C matter in these binary bands, because the settlement depends on the final recorded maximum, not the noon temperature or a forecast peak.[1]

The main catalysts are mundane but important: afternoon convective heating over Hong Kong, any Observatory updates during the day, and the timing of the final Daily Extract publication, which determines when the market can actually resolve.[1][7] With settlement not possible until the HKO publishes the data, users on-chain should watch for late-day temperature prints and any official note that the extract is finalised, since the conditional tokens only settle after the source data is locked in.[1] If the heat holds into the afternoon, the market can still reprice quickly on Polygon even while the crowd-implied probability remains anchored near the current low-30s.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.