Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 4 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. While the current crowd-implied probability for a specific "YES" outcome is listed as 0%, the market actually frontruns "31°C" at 59%, with "30°C" trailing at 32%[1]. This on-chain contract, settled in USDC on the Polygon network via conditional tokens, prices the collective view of traders buying and selling shares in real-time, reflecting the latest collective view of what is most likely to happen[1].

Historical data frames how to read these odds, as July is consistently Hong Kong’s hottest month, with an average high of 89°F (31.7°C)[4]. In July 2018, the mean maximum temperature reached 31.8°C, and the highest monthly maximum recorded since 1885 hit 35.7°C[3][5]. Recent official forecasts for 3–4 July indicate daytime highs of 27–32°C amid partly cloudy skies, aligning closely with the market’s 31°C frontrunner[1]. This suggests the current probability distribution is grounded in robust climatological patterns rather than speculation.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" once data is finalized, as the market cannot resolve until this official publication occurs[1]. Key catalysts include announcements regarding scattered showers or partly cloudy conditions, which could push temperatures toward the 32°C upper bound of recent forecasts[1]. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast shows daily highs ranging from 86° to 96°F (30–35.5°C), reinforcing the need to watch for sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity that might alter the peak temperature[8]. The settlement window ends 2026-07-04T12:00:00Z, making timely data access critical for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.