🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogPlace a position →

LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 74% First Blood in Game 1? 70% Game 2 Winner 67% O/U 3.5 Games 67% Volume: $163K Liquidity: $260K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
Open live market →
LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner74%
First Blood in Game 1?70%
Game 2 Winner67%
O/U 3.5 Games67%
Game 1 Winner66%
Game 3 Winner66%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?63%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?62%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon60%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)57%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?52%
Game 4 Winner51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
First Blood in Game 4?48%
First Blood in Game 3?48%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Odd/Even Total Kills46%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon46%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?39%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors35%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?34%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?33%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?33%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)32%
O/U 4.5 Games28%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%

Market context

The LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 74% YES. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will…

Methodology

We track LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Oliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto ReporterandEmma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial Journalist

Trade LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invita… on Polymarket Scam?

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?.

See all markets →