Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026 will determine the outcome of this prediction market, with the current crowd-implied probability for a "YES" result sitting at 0%. On Polymarket, this contract is priced today with the leading outcome locked at 33°C, reflecting real-time USDC liquidity on the Polygon network and the mechanics of conditional tokens that settle based on Wunderground data. Traders are effectively betting against the abstract notion of heat, focusing instead on the on-chain probability distribution that currently dismisses any temperature below 27°C.

Historical records frame this 0% probability as a statistical anomaly rather than a realistic forecast, given that June in Guangzhou is one of the wettest months yet consistently features intense heat. The highest temperature ever recorded in the city reached 36.6°C, while typical daily highs range between 25°C and 33°C, with average maximums around 30.9°C[2][4]. Recent Polymarket events for 25 and 26 June show the market assigning 100% probability to 35°C and 33°C respectively, suggesting that a drop to 27°C or below is virtually unprecedented in this seasonal window[1][3].

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure system that dominates the region, as its strength directly influences the excessive humidity and perspiration levels characteristic of the season[2]. The arrival of typhoons or heavy storms, which are frequent in June, could act as the primary catalyst for a temperature drop, though such events are currently not forecast to disrupt the heatwave[2]. While specific weather announcements for 27 June are pending, the dependency on the monsoon cycle and the potential for sudden downpours remains the critical variable to watch, as confirmed by recent climate data indicating 280 mm of average rainfall for the month[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.