Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying real-world event asks for the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket prices this contract today with a 0% probability for the YES outcome, implying the market believes the temperature will not hit the specific range required for settlement. This conditional token, traded on the Polygon network using USDC, currently reflects a near-certain rejection of the predicted threshold, despite the on-chain mechanics allowing for immediate liquidity entry if a trader disputes this consensus.

Historical data frames this 0% probability as a potentially premature dismissal, given that July is Guangzhou’s hottest month with an average temperature of 28.3°C and peak highs frequently reaching 39°C[2][7]. While a similar market for 3 July 2026 showed a 27.5% probability for a 34°C peak, the current absolute rejection of any significant heat event ignores the city’s record of 39.1°C in July[1][8]. The crowd-implied certainty of a cool day contradicts the typical volatility of mid-summer temperatures in southern China, where daily highs rarely drop below 30°C during this period[3].

Traders should monitor the official weather schedule from Wunderground, which will serve as the definitive resolution source, and watch for any announcements regarding the “longest summer since 1961” reported recently by Xinhua News[5]. The settlement window ends on 6 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, creating a tight dependency on the final hourly data upload. Any deviation from the expected 39°C peak could be influenced by unseasonal cloud cover or rainfall, though the prevailing trend suggests sustained high heat that might invalidate the current 0% pricing[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.