2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket currently prices this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is treating a made cut as effectively not priced in on the conditional tokens settled in USDC on Polygon. The real-world event is the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, where the cut is after 36 holes and only the low 60 scores and ties advance, with the championship running from 18–21 June and the settlement window tied to the tournament’s completion. [4][7]

That zero bid needs context from how cut markets usually move: they are often heavily dependent on the player’s position after 36 holes, the cut rule, and whether ties expand the weekend field. At Shinnecock, the projected cut has already been expected around four over par, and by Friday night the cut line had indeed landed at four over with 72 players through, showing how quickly these contracts can flip once the scoring picture firms up. [1][2] Comparable U.S. Open cut markets tend to reprice sharply only when the player is inside or close to the projected line, because the field’s margin is thin and the tournament’s tougher setup amplifies late movement. [1][8]

For a trader, the key catalysts are the second-round leaderboard, official cut confirmation, and any late scoring changes or rulings that affect ties around the cutoff. The market description also matters: if the player becomes mathematically unable to make the cut, the contract resolves No immediately, so a Polymarket user should watch live scoring, withdrawal notices, and the USGA’s formal cut announcement rather than just the headline leaderboard. [4][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track 2026 U.S. Open: To Make the Cut on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.