Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing the Feldbausch side at **about 62.0%** and Ignacio Buse at **26.1%**, with roughly **$291K** in volume on the contract, so the market is not treating this as close to a coin flip. On-chain, that means users are holding USDC-settled conditional tokens on Polygon, and the contract will pay out according to who advances, or revert to 50-50 only if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond the market’s seven-day rule.

The present **0% YES** print is hard to reconcile with the live sports context unless it reflects a stale or illiquid read rather than a fresh match update. Reports on match day said Buse and Feldbausch were scheduled for Wednesday 22 July on the centre court, with the start time listed as not before 5:10 a.m. Peru time, and streaming carried by Disney+ in that market.[1] When the tournament schedule is intact, ATP Challenger-style and ATP 250 clay matches can reprice quickly around lineup confirmation, court changes, or an in-play retirement, because the settlement outcome depends on who advances rather than who merely starts.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: official order-of-play updates, any rain delay or court swap, and any withdrawal or retirement notice before the match is completed. The contract’s mechanics matter here: if the tie is not broken within the settlement window, Polymarket resolves the market to 50-50, so even a match that is announced and partially played can still leave holders exposed to the platform’s rule-based fallback rather than a simple winner-loser outcome.[2][1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.