Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The on-chain contract for the Alejandro Moro Canas versus Harold Mayot Wimbledon qualification match currently trades at a 100% YES price for Canas advancing, reflecting a market consensus that the Spanish player has already secured a decisive victory. Live scores confirm Canas defeated Mayot 2–0 with set scores of 6–3 and 7–6, meaning the underlying event has concluded and the conditional tokens on Polygon will settle immediately to Canas as the winner once the USDC settlement window closes.

Historical precedents in on-chain tennis markets show that when a match result is confirmed before settlement, prices rapidly converge to 100% for the victor, eliminating any arbitrage opportunity for late traders. Similar cases in previous Grand Slam qualifiers demonstrate that once a ball is played and a winner is definitively determined, the market resolves to the fair price of the winner, rendering the contract effectively risk-free for holders of the winning side.

Traders should monitor the official ATP settlement announcement and the Kalshi resolution rules, which state that any match not begun resolves to a fair price, while a completed match settles to the definitive winner. Recent coverage from Tennis Majors confirms the final score and validates the 100% price, while the upcoming settlement deadline on 1 July 2026 ensures no further volatility will affect the token value.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.