Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 73% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 70% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 70% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 60% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Match O/U 21.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Match O/U 22.5 | 46% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 45% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Match O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Set 1 Winner | 37% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Set 2 Winner | 37% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk | 31% |
| Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 27% |
Market context
Market consensus: 73% chance of wimbledon wta: ashlyn krueger vs marta kostyuk. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Ashlyn Krueger and Marta Kostyuk in the Wimbledon WTA, originally scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve …
Methodology
This page reviews Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Marta Kostyuk across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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