Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 96% |
| O/U 24.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 91% |
| Seahawks O/U 13.5 | 88% |
| Broncos O/U 10.5 | 88% |
| O/U 28.5 | 87% |
| Seahawks O/U 10.5 | 85% |
| Broncos O/U 12.5 | 84% |
| O/U 30.5 | 80% |
| O/U 32.5 | 77% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| Broncos O/U 13.5 | 75% |
| Seahawks O/U 16.5 | 73% |
| O/U 34.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 69% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 36.5 | 64% |
| Broncos O/U 16.5 | 64% |
| Seahawks O/U 19.5 | 61% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 6.5 | 61% |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos | 57% |
| O/U 38.5 | 57% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| 1H Moneyline | 55% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 6.5 | 54% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 53% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Seahawks O/U 20.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Seahawks O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Broncos O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Broncos O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Seahawks 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Broncos 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 19-24 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 13-18 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 7-12 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 21+ | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 50% |
| Seahawks Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Broncos Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 49% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| Safety? | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 49% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 48% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 47% |
| Seahawks Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| Broncos Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 45% |
| Seahawks vs. Broncos: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 42.5 | 44% |
| Broncos O/U 20.5 | 44% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 10.5 | 43% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 19.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 42% |
| Spread -1.5 | 41% |
| Seahawks O/U 23.5 | 41% |
| Broncos 1H O/U 20.5 | 40% |
| Exact Margin: Broncos by 1-6 | 40% |
| Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| O/U 44.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 38% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 38% |
| Exact Margin: Seahawks by 1-6 | 38% |
| Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 37% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 17.5 | 37% |
| Spread -6.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 34% |
| O/U 46.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 33% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 33% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 13.5 | 33% |
| Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 20.5 | 32% |
| Broncos O/U 23.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 30% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 29% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| O/U 48.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 16.5 | 28% |
| Seahawks 1H O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| Spread -9.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 27% |
| Seahawks O/U 26.5 | 27% |
| Spread -5.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| Seahawks O/U 34.5 | 24% |
| Spread -10.5 | 23% |
| Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| Seahawks O/U 27.5 | 23% |
| O/U 50.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 52.5 | 18% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Broncos O/U 34.5 | 17% |
| O/U 54.5 | 16% |
| Spread -14.5 | 16% |
| Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| Broncos O/U 30.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 12% |
| O/U 56.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| Broncos O/U 27.5 | 11% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| Seahawks O/U 30.5 | 10% |
| O/U 60.5 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| Spread -19.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| O/U 58.5 | 8% |
| O/U 62.5 | 8% |
| Spread -16.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -17.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 96% probability to seahawks vs. broncos. In the upcoming NFL football game between Seahawks and Broncos, scheduled for October 15 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seahawks" if Seahawks win the game. This market will resolve to "Bro…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $582K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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