Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 22.5 | 95% |
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| Patriots O/U 13.5 | 92% |
| O/U 26.5 | 90% |
| O/U 28.5 | 86% |
| O/U 30.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| Steelers O/U 10.5 | 79% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| O/U 34.5 | 71% |
| Steelers O/U 13.5 | 71% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 70% |
| Patriots O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 69% |
| O/U 36.5 | 66% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 6.5 | 66% |
| Spread -1.5 | 65% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 63% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Patriots O/U 20.5 | 61% |
| Steelers Total Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 61% |
| O/U 38.5 | 60% |
| Steelers O/U 16.5 | 58% |
| O/U 39.5 | 56% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 56% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Spread -3.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 55% |
| O/U 40.5 | 54% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 53% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Patriots O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 1-6 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 7-13 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 14-20 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Steelers O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Patriots 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 25+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Steelers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Patriots Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| Patriots O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Patriots O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| Steelers 2H O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 19-24 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 1-6 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Patriots by 21+ | 49% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 49% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 49% |
| Patriots Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Spread -5.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 48% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 7-12 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Steelers by 13-18 | 47% |
| O/U 42.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Spread -6.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 43.5 | 43% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| Patriots O/U 34.5 | 43% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| Steelers O/U 30.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| Steelers O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 41% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| O/U 44.5 | 39% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Steelers O/U 20.5 | 38% |
| 1H Moneyline | 38% |
| O/U 45.5 | 37% |
| Spread -8.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 36% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 36% |
| O/U 46.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Steelers vs. Patriots | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 31% |
| O/U 48.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 29% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 29% |
| Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 28% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 27% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| Steelers O/U 19.5 | 25% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 17.5 | 24% |
| O/U 50.5 | 23% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Patriots O/U 26.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 13.5 | 22% |
| O/U 52.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 21% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 20% |
| Patriots O/U 27.5 | 20% |
| Spread -5.5 | 19% |
| Spread -16.5 | 19% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 19% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 18% |
| O/U 54.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 15% |
| Steelers O/U 23.5 | 15% |
| Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 14% |
| Patriots O/U 30.5 | 14% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| O/U 56.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 13% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 16.5 | 13% |
| Spread -8.5 | 12% |
| Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 11% |
| Spread -21.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Patriots 1H O/U 20.5 | 10% |
| O/U 58.5 | 9% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| O/U 60.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 62.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 7% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 19.5 | 6% |
| Steelers 1H O/U 20.5 | 6% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| O/U 64.5 | 5% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 4% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -21.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 95% YES probability for Steelers vs. Patriots. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 20 at 1:00PM ET: If Steelers wins, the market will resolve to "Steelers". If Patriots wins, the market will resolve to "Patriots". If the game is post…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $2.6M.
Methodology
This page reviews Steelers vs. Patriots across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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