Market statistics
- Total volume
- $994K
- 24h volume
- $994K
- Liquidity
- $274K
- Open interest
- $872K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
1% | 99% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
1% | 99% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Available prediction outcomes (19)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
The Baltimore Orioles travel to Boston to face the Red Sox on 3 June at 6:45PM ET in an early-season AL East matchup. Polymarket currently prices an Orioles victory at 32%, implying roughly 68% probability for a Red Sox win. This reflects Boston's stronger recent form and home-field advantage, with the conditional tokens on Polygon settling via USDC against official MLB final statistics.
The 32% probability sits notably below the Orioles' historical performance against Boston. Over the past three seasons, Baltimore has won approximately 45–48% of games against the Red Sox, suggesting the current market pricing may underweight the visiting team's competitive standing. The Orioles finished 2023 with a winning record and have maintained competitive rosters, whilst Boston's inconsistency has historically created value opportunities for contrarian positions on division rivals.
Key variables for traders centre on roster availability and recent momentum. Starting pitcher assignments carry substantial weight—the Orioles' rotation depth and Boston's bullpen reliability have shifted considerably through spring training and early June. Recent injury reports, particularly any late-week developments affecting either team's starting rotation or key position players, typically move these markets 2–5 percentage points. Weather conditions at Fenway Park on game day may also influence total runs and thus game probability, with June typically bringing variable conditions that favour certain pitching profiles.
Wikipedia Context
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Baltimore OriolesThe Baltimore Orioles are an American professional baseball team based in Baltimore. The Orioles compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the American League (AL) East Division. As one of the American League's eight charter teams in 1901, the franchise spent its first year as a major league club in Milwaukee as the Milwaukee Brewers before
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Baltimore Orioles minor league players
Below are select minor league players and the rosters of the minor league affiliates of the Baltimore Orioles:
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Baltimore Orioles (1882–1899)The Baltimore Orioles were a 19th-century professional baseball team that competed from 1882 to 1899, first in the American Association and later in the National League. This early Orioles franchise, which featured six players and a manager who were later inducted to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, finished in first place for three consecutive seasons (1
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Baltimore Orioles (1901–1902)The Baltimore Orioles were a Major League Baseball team that played in Baltimore from 1901 to 1902. A charter member of the American League (AL), the team only lasted two seasons before folding after the 1902 season. The team was replaced the following season with the New York Highlanders, known since 1913 as the New York Yankees.
Methodology
We track Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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