UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas has **Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins** listed on the prelims, and Polymarket is pricing the contract at **0% YES** for Mullins, which on chain means the conditional token market on Polygon is effectively assigning no chance to a Mullins official win. That reading fits the pre-fight shape: Mesquita entered as a heavy betting favourite at around **-650**, while Mullins was posted as a sizeable underdog at **+425**. [1][4]

For a prediction market user, the useful comparison is not just the betting line but the gap between market expectations and a binary settlement rule. Mesquita’s perfect pro record has been the main anchor for pre-fight pricing, and UFC’s own bout listing confirms this is a scheduled women’s bantamweight prelim rather than a late card swap or exhibition. In that sense, a 0% YES quote is a statement about the current consensus, not about any guaranteed result, because the contract still resolves strictly on the UFC’s official winner call, or to 50-50 if the bout ends as a draw, no contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond the stated window. [1][4]

The main catalysts are simple: weigh-in status, any late injury or card reshuffle, and the official result from UFC once the bout is completed. DraftKings’ parallel market framing also reflects that the event has been scheduled as a standard winner-versus-winner settlement, so the last-minute risk is less about scoring mechanics and more about whether the fight happens cleanly inside the settlement window. If the bout goes ahead as listed at the UFC Apex, the on-chain outcome should settle quickly once the UFC posts the result. [2][3][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Scam??

Zero. Polymarket Scam? routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.