Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets face off at Citi Field on 22 June for a 7:10pm ET MLB clash, with the Cubs currently favoured to win. On Polymarket, this contract trades at 48% USDC for a Cubs victory, reflecting a near-even split where conditional tokens on the Polygon network allow traders to lock in exposure without moving the underlying asset. The price sits just below the 50% threshold, suggesting the market perceives a slight edge for the Mets despite the Cubs’ recent form.

Historically, mid-June games between these teams have shown volatility when starting pitchers carry injury concerns or when weather delays disrupt lineups. In 2024, a similar matchup saw the Cubs win by three runs after a late rain delay, pushing the conditional token price from 45% to 62% within hours. Comparable cases indicate that prices near 48% often resolve to either side with minimal margin, making this a high-uncertainty position where small catalysts can swing outcomes decisively.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, particularly Shota Imanaga for the Cubs and Jacob deGrom for the Mets, as their recent performance metrics (4.26 and 3.26 ERA respectively) heavily influence run-line expectations. A Fox Sports report notes the combined total is set at 8.5, with the over favoured, implying a high-scoring game that could benefit the Cubs’ balanced roster. Any delay in the 7:10pm ET start or changes to the pitching rotation will likely trigger sharp USDC price movements on the conditional token market.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.