Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will contest a FIFA World Cup qualifier on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. Polymarket currently prices the conditional token for "More Markets" at 5% YES, implying traders assess a low probability that additional betting contracts will be offered for this fixture. The settlement window closes 14 June at 01:00 UTC, giving roughly 16 hours post-kickoff for resolution. On-chain liquidity sits thin; traders moving meaningful USDC into this contract face slippage typical of niche sports derivatives on Polygon.

Historical precedent suggests Polymarket's coverage of World Cup qualifiers remains patchy outside major confederations. UEFA and CONMEBOL fixtures attract dense market creation; CONCACAF and African qualifiers often see sparse secondary-market activity. Haiti's participation in this cycle is noteworthy—the nation qualified for the 2024 Copa América but rarely features in deep World Cup betting markets. Scotland's presence in European qualification typically generates broader interest, yet even established nations see limited "meta" markets (those betting on whether other markets will exist) unless the underlying match carries knockout-stage weight or exceptional narrative pull.

Catalysts for traders centre on official FIFA scheduling confirmations and Polymarket's own market-creation decisions, typically announced 48–72 hours before fixtures. Recent reporting from ESPN and Sky Sports confirms the June 13 date; however, no public statement from Polymarket's market council indicates whether expanded betting options will launch. Fixture postponements or venue changes, whilst unlikely at this stage, would alter settlement mechanics. The low probability reflects genuine uncertainty about Polymarket's internal prioritisation rather than doubts about the match itself occurring.

Methodology

We track Haiti vs. Scotland - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.