Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Maxx Crosby, the Las Vegas Raiders' pass-rush edge defender, remains under contract through the 2025 NFL season. The market's 0% YES probability reflects the baseline assumption that Crosby will stay with Las Vegas absent a trade or release. On Polymarket, this conditional token trades at near-zero USDC value, meaning traders currently assign negligible odds to Crosby joining another franchise by 31 August 2026. The settlement default—resolving to Raiders if no move occurs—anchors the pricing; any shift requires either explicit team action or contractual termination before the deadline.

Comparable cases suggest edge rushers of Crosby's calibre rarely move mid-contract without significant front-office upheaval. Von Miller, Khalil Mack, and T.J. Watt all remained with their original teams through multi-year deals unless traded outright. Crosby signed a four-year, $98 million extension in 2023, signalling Raiders commitment. Trades do occur—Mack moved to Chicago in 2018, Miller to Denver in 2011—but typically involve draft capital exchanges and mutual agreement. The 0% pricing reflects this historical stickiness among premium defensive linemen.

Traders should monitor Raiders ownership decisions, particularly any coaching or general manager changes that might trigger roster reconstruction. The NFL trade deadline falls in late October each year; any mid-season Raiders collapse could prompt deadline activity. Contract restructuring announcements or injury reports affecting Crosby's availability would also shift conditional token valuations. News regarding Las Vegas's 2025 draft strategy and salary-cap positioning, typically released in March–April annually, provides early signals about potential roster moves heading into the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Scam? triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.