Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Norway | 100% |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 0% |
| Draw | 0% |
Market context
The FIFA World Cup knockout match between Côte d'Ivoire and Norway is set to begin at 1:00 PM ET in Dallas, with Norway’s Erling Haaland leading the Scandinavian side in their first-round clash. On Polymarket today, the contract for a Côte d'Ivoire halftime win is priced at 0% USDC, reflecting near-total market confidence that the Ivorian side will not score the first goal or lead by 45 minutes. This pricing sits on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens govern settlement based on the official halftime result, including stoppage time within the first 45 minutes.
Historically, Norway has shown strong early dominance in World Cup fixtures, including a 1-3 halftime scoreline against France in Group I earlier this tournament [1], while Haaland’s Norway previously beat Ivory Coast 2-0 in a simulated or prior encounter referenced in social commentary [4]. Such patterns suggest that when Norway faces African sides, they often establish control early, making a 0% probability for an Ivorian halftime lead consistent with past performance trends and current team strength.
Traders should monitor pre-match lineups, particularly Haaland’s confirmed start [2], and any in-game tactical shifts during the first 20 minutes. The match referee, Jesús Valenzenzuela Sáez, may influence stoppage time accumulation, which directly affects the 45-minute window definition [5]. Recent coverage from ESPN (UK) confirms live stats and score updates will be critical for real-time assessment of early goal probability [10]. No external announcements are expected beyond the official kickoff, as the game is already underway in Dallas.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - Halftime Result on Polymarket Scam?
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