Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Seattle Orcas

Platform comparison

Market context

Mi New York defeated Seattle Orcas by 5 runs in their 17th match of the 2026 Cognizant Major League Cricket season, a result that already frames the 12% YES probability on this July 10 contract as an outlier against recent form [1][9]. The 25th match between these sides earlier in June saw New York win by 41 runs, with Marcus Stoinis taking 5 wickets and the Orcas collapsing in the final overs [5][6]. On-chain, Polymarket prices this conditional token in USDC on Polygon, where the low implied probability suggests traders expect a reversal despite New York’s dominant head-to-head record in the tournament.

Historically, Seattle Orcas have struggled to defend low totals against New York’s batting depth, particularly at Knight Riders Cricket Field in Pomona where the 17th match was played [2][7]. In comparable MLC fixtures, teams trailing by 40+ runs in earlier encounters have rarely recovered without a Super Over tiebreak, yet the settlement rules treat any on-field ruling or forfeit as an ordinary win, removing ambiguity for token holders [market description]. The 12% price likely reflects overconfidence in Seattle’s recent squad adjustments rather than the statistical weight of New York’s two prior victories.

Traders should monitor the official Seattle Orcas schedule for any lineup changes or injury updates before the 8:30 PM UTC start on 10 July [3]. Prime Video lists the match as the 25th fixture, confirming the venue and time, while ESPNcricinfo will publish the finalized result for settlement [8]. Any announcement of a Super Over due to a tie would resolve the market immediately under the stated conditions, making weather delays or pitch reports the primary catalysts for price movement in the conditional tokens [market description].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.