Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 100% |
| Peter Malnati | 0% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 0% |
| Keegan Bradley | 0% |
| Doug Ghim | 0% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 0% |
| Michael Kim | 0% |
| Chris Kirk | 0% |
| Ricky Castillo | 0% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 0% |
| Mark Hubbard | 0% |
| Johnny Keefer | 0% |
| Xander Schauffele | 0% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0% |
| Kevin Yu | 0% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 0% |
| Eric Cole | 0% |
| Rico Hoey | 0% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 0% |
| Benjamin James | 0% |
| Gordon Sargent | 0% |
| Adam Schenk | 0% |
| Neal Shipley | 0% |
| Davis Thompson | 0% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 0% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0% |
| Tony Finau | 0% |
| Chris Gotterup | 0% |
| Ben Griffin | 0% |
| David Lipsky | 0% |
| Max McGreevy | 0% |
| Davis Riley | 0% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0% |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% |
| Sam Stevens | 0% |
| Aaron Wise | 0% |
| Matt Kuchar | 0% |
| Zach Bauchou | 0% |
| Corey Conners | 0% |
| Steven Fisk | 0% |
| Max Greyserman | 0% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% |
| Billy Horschel | 0% |
| Si Woo Kim | 0% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0% |
| Henry Lebioda | 0% |
| Stefano Mazzoli | 0% |
| Matt McCarty | 0% |
| Keita Nakajima | 0% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 0% |
| Jordan Spieth | 0% |
| Jackson Suber | 0% |
| Adam Svensson | 0% |
| Nick Taylor | 0% |
| Karl Vilips | 0% |
| Matt Wallace | 0% |
| Vince Whaley | 0% |
| Cameron Young | 0% |
| Justin Lower | 0% |
| Zac Blair | 0% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0% |
| Chandler Blanchet | 0% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% |
| Brian Campbell | 0% |
| Rafael Campos | 0% |
| Luke Clanton | 0% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% |
| Joel Dahmen | 0% |
| Brad Dalke | 0% |
| Cam Davis | 0% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 0% |
| Austin Eckroat | 0% |
| Harris English | 0% |
| A.J. Ewart | 0% |
| Brice Garnett | 0% |
| Russell Henley | 0% |
| Garrick Higgo | 0% |
| Joe Highsmith | 0% |
| Lee Hodges | 0% |
| Tom Hoge | 0% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 0% |
| Patton Kizzire | 0% |
| Jake Knapp | 0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 0% |
| Mac Meissner | 0% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 0% |
| Marco Penge | 0% |
| Andrew Putnam | 0% |
| Chad Ramey | 0% |
| Kevin Roy | 0% |
| Ryan Ruffels | 0% |
| Matthias Schmid | 0% |
| Webb Simpson | 0% |
| Kevin Streelman | 0% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 0% |
| Dylan Wu | 0% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0% |
| Player 0 | 0% |
| Player 1 | 0% |
| Player 2 | 0% |
| Player 3 | 0% |
| Player 4 | 0% |
| Player 5 | 0% |
| Player 6 | 0% |
| Player 7 | 0% |
| Player 8 | 0% |
| Player 9 | 0% |
| Player 10 | 0% |
| Player 11 | 0% |
| Player 12 | 0% |
| Player 13 | 0% |
| Player 14 | 0% |
| Player 15 | 0% |
| Player 16 | 0% |
| Player 17 | 0% |
| Player 18 | 0% |
| Player 19 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Polymarket has this contract at **0% YES**, so the market is effectively saying the current listed field has been priced out of a clean win path and that only a late development would create value in the “yes” side before settlement. On Polygon, the position still settles through conditional tokens in **USDC**, so the practical question for users is not the abstract tournament winner but whether a named player can still survive official elimination rules and then finish first at Detroit Golf Club before the 2026-08-02 cut-off.
That 0% read is unusual, but it sits against a market backdrop where the PGA Tour’s pre-event boards still show a live, albeit concentrated, outright race. Cameron Young was the consensus favourite in late-July pricing, with Xander Schauffele, Chris Gotterup, Si Woo Kim and Wyndham Clark in the next tier across major books and PGA Tour odds pages.[1][3][10][11] Comparable Rocket/Rocket Mortgage winner markets have often been decided by players priced well outside the shortest quote, which is why traders usually treat a near-zero Polymarket price as a signal to check for contract-specific mechanics rather than assume the tournament is over.[6][9]
The main catalysts are straightforward: official tee-time changes, withdrawals, cut-line movement, and any late confirmation of field status from the PGA Tour or the event site. Because this market resolves to “No” if a listed player is eliminated from contention under the tournament’s own rules, a user should watch the live leaderboard and any official rulings on eligibility, disqualification, or withdrawal before the final round.[2][4] If an unlisted player wins, the contract goes to “Other”, so the key dependency is whether the eventual winner is still among the listed names when the trophy is awarded.[2]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Scam?, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Scam? trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner on Polymarket Scam?
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