Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Scam?) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
85% | 15% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
85% | 15% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| O/U 35.5 | 79% |
| O/U 37.5 | 76% |
| O/U 47.5 | 76% |
| O/U 45.5 | 72% |
| Tennessee O/U 19.5 | 70% |
| O/U 41.5 | 69% |
| Texas O/U 27.5 | 66% |
| Texas vs. Tennessee | 65% |
| Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| O/U 43.5 | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Spread -1.5 | 62% |
| O/U 49.5 | 62% |
| O/U 51.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 57% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| Texas 2H O/U 14.5 | 56% |
| O/U 53.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 54% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Texas O/U 24.5 | 51% |
| Texas O/U 33.5 | 51% |
| Tennessee 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Tennessee 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 51% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 51% |
| Texas vs. Tennessee: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Texas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| Tennessee 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Texas Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Texas vs. Tennessee: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Texas vs. Tennessee: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Texas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Texas Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Texas vs. Tennessee: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas vs. Tennessee: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas vs. Tennessee: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 49% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| O/U 55.5 | 48% |
| Texas 1H O/U 14.5 | 48% |
| Tennessee 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Moneyline | 48% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| Texas O/U 30.5 | 47% |
| Spread -6.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 45% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| O/U 57.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Tennessee 1H O/U 15.5 | 41% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Texas 1H O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| Spread -9.5 | 37% |
| O/U 59.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| Texas 1H O/U 18.5 | 37% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 36% |
| Spread -0.5 | 35% |
| O/U 61.5 | 35% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| Spread -10.5 | 32% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -11.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 30% |
| O/U 63.5 | 29% |
| O/U 71.5 | 29% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| O/U 67.5 | 27% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 25% |
| Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 23% |
| Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 4Q O/U 20.5 | 20% |
| Spread -17.5 | 19% |
| O/U 65.5 | 19% |
| Spread -12.5 | 18% |
| O/U 69.5 | 18% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 18% |
| Spread -20.5 | 17% |
| Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| O/U 73.5 | 14% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| O/U 75.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, texas vs. tennessee stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Texas and Tennessee, scheduled for September 26 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas" if Texas win the game. This market …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $122K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Scam?. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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