Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted despite a recent ceasefire, with experts warning that a full return to pre-conflict shipping volumes could take weeks or even months. The 50% crowd-implied probability on Polymarket today reflects this uncertainty, pricing the contract as a coin flip on whether the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls will hit 60 by 31 July 2026. On-chain, this conditional token is settled in USDC on the Polygon network, where traders are betting on the precise moment normalcy is officially recorded rather than the abstract notion of peace.

Historical parallels from the crisis timeline show that narrow corridors can clear within days, yet full mine-sweeping operations to restore the entire waterway have consistently delayed normal traffic for months. During the initial 48 hours of the recent ceasefire, only four transits were recorded, and major shipping firms like Hap-Lloyd remain cautious, citing unresolved legal parameters and undefined toll structures as key deterrents for ship owners [2]. This pattern suggests that while the Strait is technically reopening, the threshold of 60 daily calls is a high bar that may not be met before the settlement window closes, keeping the probability firmly at 50%.

Traders should monitor the Joint Maritime Information Center’s threat-level downgrades and the progress of mine-clearing efforts, as these are the primary catalysts for sustained traffic recovery. The tentative 60-day memorandum of understanding, which includes Iran clearing mines and the US lifting its blockade, is the critical dependency; if implementation stalls, the 60-call target becomes unlikely [4]. Recent reports confirm that while tanker traffic has resumed for five permitted nations, the broader commercial fleet remains hesitant due to war-risk insurance tightening and intermittent navigation interference [5][8]. The next pivotal window is the immediate coordination between Tehran and Washington, as any delay in synchronised withdrawals will further postpone the return to normal operations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Scam? is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.